Welcome to the halfway point of the regular season, fellas. It’s been a pretty wild ride so far. The standings are starting to take shape and have some amount of consistency, so my hyper-intelligent playoff prediction algorithm can start to do some analysis. I’m also introducing the Luck vs Skill Alignment Chart in order to rub more salt into your wounds.
“Championship Contender” Tier
Over the past month, both of the previous tenants of this tier have moved out and a fresh crop of championship hopefuls have taken their place. All at 5–2, and finding consistent ways to win, Michael, Ricky, and Sean find themselves leading the race at the halfway mark.
Michael | 1st Place | 5–2 | 967.84 PF | 834.82 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 83%
Michael has established himself as the highest-scoring team of the season so far. Cooper Kupp continues his historic march towards having the highest-scoring fantasy season for a wide receiver ever. With weekly superstars and depth at most positions, look for Michael to continue his dominance over the rest of the league. He has also had the fewest points scored against him this season, maxing out his luck and skill stats.
Ricky | 2nd Place | 5–2 | 947.62 PF | 844.84 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 77%
Ricky also finds himself high into the top-right axis of the alignment chart, with the 2nd highest points scored, and the 3rd fewest points against. High ceiling players such as Lamar Jackson and Tyreek Hill, and waiver wire diamonds like Cordarrelle Patterson and Khalil Herbert have greatly contributed to Ricky’s first-half performance. Watch out for Ricky’s latest attempt to swindle someone off your roster, and also for him to continue to win games.
Sean | 3rd Place | 5–2 | 934.32 PF | 869.90 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 74%
After a super solid draft of finding mid-to-late round gems who have contributed to him scoring the 3rd most points in the league, Sean finds himself in 3rd place at the halfway point. Jamarr Chase, Deebo Samuel, and Deandre Swift help Sean make up the points that an injured Saquon Barkley and a Geno-Smith QB’d Tyler Lockett lack. Consistent with the other teams in this tier, Sean has also had good luck on top of his great team, with the 4th fewest points scored against him. Watch out for Sean as his team gets healthier and reaches its true potential.
“Yesterday’s News” Tier
While Nash and Benn were the talk of the town at the end of last season, and the start of this one, they find themselves in the lower tier of playoff teams at the halfway point. Still, they have the potential to get back to their former glory if the cards fall the right way for them.
Nash | 4th Place | 5–2 | 928.44 PF | 835.42 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 65%
While he was the top dog after Q1, Nash fell to 4th place at the halfway point. He is still tied at 5–2 with the top 3, but lacks the firepower to justify being placed one tier higher. Injuries to Christian McCaffrey and every other running back he has owned have slowed down the potential offensive output of his team. Still, thanks to having the second fewest points scored against him so far, Nash is very much in contention to repeat as league champion.
Benn | 5th Place | 4–3 | 921.48 PF | 933.44 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 61%
Benn finds himself at 4–3 despite having the 2nd most points scored against him this season. He has fought off the offensive onslaught as best as possible by putting up a respectable 5th most points scored. It will be a matter of finding consistent ways to score for Benn to truly return to form. He has that in players such as Kyler Murray and Najee Harris, but surprisingly down years for Travis Kelce and Keenan Allen are hurting him for now.
“Fringe Playoff Team” Tier
David | 6th Place | 3–4 | 847.70 PF | 888.72 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 52%
I represent the Dalton line of the fantasy season so far. Nothing spectacular and nothing awful. Just average as it gets. As of now, I’m holding down the final playoff spot, but a solid run from anyone in the bottom half of the standings could sink the ship. With Nick Chubb and Jerry Jeudy returning from injury, I have a mostly fully healthy roster with hopes of securing my playoff spot in the second half.
Dennis | 8th Place | 2–5 | 896.08 PF | 916.80 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 33%
Dennis once again stands alone in his own tier. Another victim of bad luck, Dennis has had the 3rd most points scored against him and that ultimately led to his 5 losses despite scoring the 6th most points in the league. His season is not necessarily over yet, but injuries to Antonio Brown, Kareem Hunt, and Chris Carson do not look good going into the second half of the season. Out of respect to his total points, Dennis is the first player to leap frog above someone else (*cough* Zach *cough) who is ranked higher in the overall standings than him.
“AJ Brown’s Chipotle Farts” Tier
After a 12 round bout with a Chipotle burrito bowl, AJ Brown flushed the equivalent of these 3 teams’ playoff chances down the toilet.
Zach | 7th Place | 3–4 | 787.56 PF | 870.18 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 37%
While Zach remains a game out of the playoffs, a deeper look into his stats shows that the only thing going for him is pure luck. Zach has scored by far the fewest total points this season, and has benefitted from an easy schedule that has given him 5th fewest points against. Of course, it’s better to be lucky than good sometimes, but over the course of a 14 game regular season, you can only rely on luck and ̶J̶o̶e̶ ̶B̶u̶r̶r̶o̶w̶ ̶T̶a̶y̶l̶o̶r̶ ̶H̶e̶i̶n̶e̶k̶e̶ Carson Wentz to get you so far. Derrick Henry will take Zach as far as he can go, but Zach will be lucky to get any of the remainder of his skill positions to get him 10 points each the way things stand.
Shilp | 9th Place | 2–5 | 850.10 PF | 901.44 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 28%
Having put all his eggs into the Vikings basket, Shilp fell to Jacob’s last place squad when his 3 Minnesotans were on bye, giving the last place team it’s first victory. Shilp now finds himself two games out of the playoffs and a significant uphill battle in front of him. Injuries and mediocrity have started to sink the ship. With the 7th most points scored and 7th fewest points against, Shilp needs to start finding ways to win now or else it’s all over.
Jacob | 10th Place | 1–6 | 800.36 PF | 985.94 PA
Chance to make playoffs: 14%
In what was mostly a moral victory in week 7, Jacob avoiding being winless at the halfway point of the season. With the 2nd fewest points scored and most points against, Jacob owns prime real estate in the bottom-left quadrant of our graph. Is a second-half turnaround out of the question? Not entirely, but it will take a sharp turnaround in pure luck in order to happen.